You sense the lack of foresight, or the lack of charismatic leaders, when a group looks lost and seems like it is scraping the bottom of the organizational barrel. Or why is the “well-oiled” machine of the administration coalition Lakas-Kampi, with Gilberto Teodoro astride it as presidential bet, sputtering in the choice of his running mate?

Lakas-Kampi propagandists boast about the size of the coalition’s organization for the 2010 elections, with incumbent governors, mayors and congressman supposedly ensuring a victory for Teodoro. But when your top bet is at the bottom of the surveys and you could not find a decent running mate for him, the boast gets exposed as empty talk.

Good teams attract good materials. Consider the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA or the University of the Visayas Green Lancers in the Cesafi. But why is Lakas-Kampi, if it is really a powerhouse group, making do with a Stephen Jackson instead of a Kobe Bryant? Teodoro is no All-Star material, loitering at the bottom of surveys for a reason.

And where’s the Pau Gasol-types for Lakas-Kampi? Ronaldo Puno, considered a wily political operator, wanted to pair off with Teodoro but has backed off from the vice presidential race—again, for a reason. He probably realized that as Lakas-Kampi bet for vice president, he wasn’t going anywhere. But his move exposed the group’s weakness.

Consider what happened when Lakas-Kampi officials went down the list for Puno replacements. They found actress and Batangas Gov. Vilma Santos, then Cebu Gov. Gwendolyn Garcia—and after that nothing much. Which reminds me. When you look at the list of vice presidential hopefuls rated in the surveys, no Lakas-Kampi leader is there.

Compounding the problem is the refusal of Santos and Garcia to bite. Indeed, why would the two run for vice president when their chances of winning a government post are bigger if they seek reelection? Even Ate Vi, as vice presidential material, lags behind a Mar Roxas or a Loren Legarda in terms of voters’ acceptability nationwide.

Compare Lakas-Kampi’s situation with the other political groups. The Liberal Party went through the process seamlessly, with Noynoy Aquino as presidential bet and Mar Roxas as his running mate. Former president Joseph Estrada has a credible bet for VP in Jejomar Binay. Chiz Escudero will probably end up pairing with Loren Legarda.

To be fair, there’s no sign yet that Lakas-Kampi is a sinking ship, although it looks like it is leaking. That’s why it could not get the national-level candidates it needs for a credible 2010 elections run. Besides, it is too identified with President Arroyo, an unpopular incumbent. The results of the 2007 polls are proofs of this lack of popularity.

Given this reality, I don’t see how Teodoro and whoever will be his running mate could climb up and overtake the leading presidentiables come 2010. Gibo is starting at, what, 4 percent? He even needs to climb up more than 30 percent to overtake Manny Villar. That shows you how formidable Aquino’s 60 percent rating is at this stage.

Of course, the elections are still some seven months away but much as I would like to subscribe to the saying that many things can still happen in that span of time, the divide that separates Gibo from Noynoy is a chasm. And if you think local government officials can be the difference between winning and losing, consider again the 2007 polls. I say that for the administration bet to win in 2010, cheating could be the only option.

(This came out in my October 28, 2009 Candid Thoughts column in Sun.Star Cebu)

I have been waiting for the Social Weather Station (SWS) to conduct a survey on people’s preference for president in 2010, this after results of polls involving only limited areas were released last month. Would the result of an SWS survey validate Sen. Benigno Aquino III’s status as the top presidentiable? That was a question that caught my interest.

Finally, SWS released yesterday the result of its “Third Quarter 2009” survey conducted from September 18-21, 2009 on 1,800 adult respondents nationwide. The poll, according to SWS website (www.sws.org.ph) was non-commissioned and “was done on SWS’ own initiative as a public service.” That should lessen suspicions of SWS motive.

I am not fully sold out on surveys, as these are partly dependent on respondents’ understanding of the questions thrown at them. In this survey, part of the question was: “Sinu-sino sa palagay ninyo ang mga magagaling na lider na dapat pumalit kay Pang. Arroyo bilang Presidente? Maaari po kayong magbanggit ng hanggang tatlong sagot.”

The survey result was no different from the others in that Noynoy grabbed the top spot, but his rating this time breached the 60 percent mark. The others virtually settled for crumbs, with Sen. Manuel Villar a far second with 37 percent. Farther down were former president Joseph Estrada with 18 percent and Sen. Francis Escudero with 15 percent.

Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, standard bearer of the administration party Lakas-Kampi and who seems to be the favorite of Gov. Gwendolyn Garcia, continued his miserable run in the surveys, managing to get only four percent. At least Escudero, who appears to be Cebu City Mayor Tomas Osmeña’s preference, is up 11 percent over Gibo.

My take has been that there is still room for Noynoy to improve his rating once he starts to openly woo votes like what, say, Villar has been doing for months now through his infamous infomercials. Aquino is still an enigma to many voters, and this has allowed critics to claim he is TWA (talagang walang alam) without them being contradicted.

Incidentally, supporters of the other presidentiables are already working overtime to pull Noynoy’s rating down by hitting him low. Not content with spreading lies about his gender, they are insinuating he is mentally impaired. I take that as a sign of worry, even desperation. But I doubt if that would have an effect on Noynoy’s rating overall.

(This came out in my October 15, 2009 column in Sun.Star Cebu)

My Sunday was spent attending to my young son whose vomiting episodes forced us to bring him to the facility nearest our place, South General Hospital. I therefore didn’t have time to monitor the rage of typhoon Ondoy, which brought floods to Metro Manila, killing more than 200 people, displacing thousands of others and destroying properties..

President Arroyo called Ondoy a “once-in-a-lifetime typhoon” not because it carried strong winds but for the amount of rain that it poured on Metro Manila (a month’s worth of rain fell on the area in only 12 hours). Devastating storms like Ondoy tend to end up in some people’s minds as myth-like, remaining on their lips for even a lifetime.

I used to hear my old folks talk about typhoon Amy. I did some research and found out why my late father Tiyong, who was from Tudela, and my mother Juling, who is from neighboring Poro, all in the Camotes group of islands, referred to Amy with awe. It struck Camotes and other Visayas islands, bringing havoc that took years to forget.

Retired Department of Education division superintendent Elsa Suralta was a young girl when Amy struck Tudela, and she remembered the “diaspora” that happened after that. The storm destroyed coconuts and other agricultural produce of the town. The hardships people suffered forced my uncles Inok and Desing to relocate to Mindanao.

For the next generation, Ruping was it. Cebu is not often hit directly by typhoons, thus the damage brought about by Ruping scarred many Cebuano’s memory. I was in the residence of my brother in Danao when the storm struck. The compound, which was also used as a warehouse of a soft drink firm, was not as exposed to the wind as the others..

Still, the experience led me to write an essay published in Sun.Star Weekend on Dec. 2, 1990. “I can still recall what I felt at the height of Ruping’s fury,” I wrote.” I felt fear. In the dark, I listened as the howling winds lashed mercilessly. I was helpless, unmoving in the midst of the sweeping force I would never have the capacity to control.”

“For me,” I continued, “the most important period is after the storm. For there the lessons stand out clearly. We discover our positive and negative attitudes during stress, and are able to assess the damage and build a stronger foundation in preparation for the next test…The poet Emily Dickinson phrased it beautifully:

“Essential oils are wrung:/ The attar from the rose/ Is not expressed by suns alone,/ It is the gift of screws.”

(I wrote this for my October 1, 2009 Candid Thoughts column in Sun.Star Cebu)

I didn’t know about the Marian Shrine in Simala, Sibonga town until relatives of my wife Edizza asked both of us to go with them there. That was a couple of years ago, a few months before my mother-in-law was diagnosed with lung cancer. We went there Sunday morning and brought with us food for lunch. We used two vehicles for the trip.

The shrine is in Upper Lindogon, a hilly area that can be reached using a gravel road that branched off from the national highway in Simala. You know you are near the shrine because of the people. Then you espy the cathedral-like structure on a hillside. The road does not reach the shrine, so you have to walk some 100 meters to reach it.

Where the popular places of worship are, expect business to be brisk. Near the entrance of the shrine a convenience stores and eateries have sprouted, and they are not the make shift ones that mushroom during rural tabo (market day). A vacant lot has been designated by enterprising people as pay parking area. Around it are nipa huts for rent.

The Marian Monks of the Eucharistic Adoration are doing well in “selling” the place to the faithful. A billboard a few meters from the entrance tells the story of the “miracle” attributed to the Marian image in the shrine. I could not recall the details of the story, but I think it was about an epidemic whose spread the Marian image prevented.

An article in a Manila daily erroneously attributed the popularity of the “Birhen sa Simala (also, Our of Lady Lindogon) to a claim that it “shed tears of blood.” I don’t think such incident happened. Rather, word-of-mouth stories about illnesses cured, petitions given, etc. attracted devotees to far off Simala (Sibonga is 48 kilometers from the city).

When we went there, the hillside structure looked complete from afar. But once inside, I found that it was still a work in progress. What the monks did was expand what I thought was a Marian chapel. But the expansion work was immense. Scaffoldings were visible at the sides. That didn’t bother people forming a line to get to the Marian image.

The project is big, so this must be where the monks poured the millions of pesos they have received from donors, some of them from abroad. The pathway leading to the shrine (one uses a concrete pathway and has to cross a bridge) is landscaped and has gardens that are well-tended. That means the monks were doing their work that time.

I am not easily swayed by “miracles” (the cynicism comes from my Marxist past), but the faith of the devotees was amazing. The saying of the novena (the monks could not celebrate mass) was continuous, as newly arrived devotees replaced those who left in the pews. A monk interrupted the prayers to allow a woman to give a healing testimony.

I no longer joined my wife and her relatives when they went back to Simala months later to accompany to my already wheelchair-bound mother-in-law there. I had to tend to the kids who had to be left behind by their mother. It must have been a difficult trip for my very ill mother-in-law but I reckon that her faith strengthened her resolve.

My mother-in-law was deeply religious and she leaned on the power of prayer until the end. (She had one of her daughters bring an image of the Virgin Mary to our house where she breathed her last). That is why I consider it unfortunate that the monks in Simala are embroiled in a controversy. It is a disservice to people whose faith in the Virgin Mary is genuine and boundless.

(I wrote this for my September 25, 2009 column in Sun.Star Cebu)

I don’t have much to say about the Cebu Press Freedom Week activity, except that I would have preferred one that is less celebratory and more inward-looking and honest. So I would rather tackle freedom in general and its twin, responsibility.

We are in a period that is the exact reverse of the one after martial law was declared by Ferdinand Marcos on September 21, 2009. Today, freedom is in excess, especially with the advent of new technology like the internet. Blogs and ideas-sharing websites have proliferated, and the tendency for abuse is real.

Professional journalists are guided by a code of ethics and standards that is virtually similar from one media outlet to another, and whether one is in the Philippines or in other countries like the United States. But no such codes guides bloggers and opinion spewers in, say, the internet.

Even websites and blogs run by professional journalists are finding it difficult to rein in the abusive tendencies of some comments posters. Maligning a person and use of profanity and other abusive language often accompany sane readers’ views and the journalist must be alert at all times to ensure that decency continues to become the norm in running such website or blog.

Indeed, we are in a very complicated period, but the guideline has remained simple and basic. Civilized conduct is needed now more than ever.

Who is Gilbert Teodoro, the standard bearer of the Lakas-Kampi-CMD coalition for the 2003 elections? We know that he is currently the secretary of national defense. But in 2003 when he was still a member of the House of Representatives, he, together with Rep. William Felix Fuentebella filed an impeachment complaint against the then Supreme Court Chief Justice Hilario Davide Jr., a Cebuano.

The filing was done on Oct. 23, 2003, four months after another impeachment complaint was filed by former president Joseph Estradaagainst Davide and seven other Supreme Court associate justices. The 1987 Constitution states that only one impeachment complaint can be filed against a government official within one year.

The Erap complaint was for culpable violation of the Constitution, betrayal of public trust and other high crimes. It was related to the blessing given by Davide and the SC associate justices to the assumption of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo to the presidency following Erap’s ouster by Edsa II. But the one initiated by Teodoro and Fuentebella was more sinister because it insinuated that Davide, a respected Cebuano, is corrupt.

The congressmen led by Teodoro and Fuentebella accused Davide of misusing the Judiciary Development Fund. But that was for many people only a front. The belief was that Teodoro’s uncle, Eduardo “Danding” Cojuangco was behind the move to ensure that a Supreme Court friendly to him would decide the pending cases relative to his acquisition of wealth under the Marcos regime. Teodoro and the core of the pro-impeachment solons were members of Cojuangco’s Nationalist Peoples Coalition.

As the late senator Raul Roco said at that time, the congressmen pushing for the impeachment of Davide were simply out to oust him and were scrounging for sins they could throw against him. Of course, the impeachment complaint initiated by Teodoro and Feuntebella did not go anywhere considering its unconstitutional nature. But it did besmirch the reputation of one of the best leaders that Cebu has produced.

By the way, another presidentiable, Francis “Chiz” Escudero signed the impeachment complaint. I find this interesting because it showed that Teodoro and Escudero will do the bidding of Cojuangco come hell or high water. To paraphrase Sen. Panfilo Lacson’s worry about another Erap presidency: God save this country from the likes of Teodoro and Escudero.

(Ang mosunod nga prosa-balak orihinal nga sinuwat sa Ingles ni Max Ehrmann. Kini mao ang akong suway nga paghubad niini sa Binisaya.)

Lakaw nga kalma taliwa sa kagahob ug kaguliyang
Ug hinumdumi ang kalinaw nga naa sa kahilom.

Kutob sa mahimo ug sa way pagkaluya,
Tagda pag-ayo ang tanang mga tawo.
Isulti ang matuod sa paaging hinay ug tin-aw,
Ug paminawa ang uban,
Bisan ang bogo ug way hibangkaagan
Sila usab dunay ikasugilon.

Likayi ang mga tawong saba ug mapangahason
Kay sila maghatag og kahasol sa kalag;
Kun itandi nimo ang kaugalingon sa uban
Basin mahimo kang mapagarbohon o magul-anon
Kay kanunay, dunay tawong labaw o ubos kanimo.

Kahimut-i ang imong mga kalampusan ingon man mga plano;
Pagmadasigon sa imong trabaho, bisag unsa kini kaubos
Usa kini ka bahandi taliwa sa nag-usab-usab nga panahon.

Magmainampingon sa imong mga negosyo
Kay ang kalibutan puno sa lingla.
Apan dili ka angayang mabuta sa mga maayong gawi;
Daghang mga tawo buot mokab-ot sa hataas nga mithi
Ug bisan asa ang kinabuhi puno sa kamabayanihon.

Pagmatinud-anon sa imong kaugalingon.
Ayaw pagpakaaron-ingnon sa imong gibati;
Ingon man, ayaw katahapi ang gugma
Kay atubangan sa kauga ug kawalay paglaum
Sama kini ka makanunayon sa sagbot.

Dawata ang tambag sa katuigan,
Samtang andam nga gitahan ang mga butang sa kabatan-on.
Himoang lig-on ang kalag nga maoy manalipod sa kalit nga dimalas

Apan ayaw pagpasamok sa itom nga panghunahuna
Sagad sa mga kahadlok natawo diha sa kakapoy ug pag-inusara.

Labaw sa maanindot nga disiplina
Magmaaghop sa imong kaugalingon.

Ikaw anak sa uniberso
Sama sa kahoy ug mga bituon
May katungod ka nga magpakabuhi.
Ug bisan kun dili kini tin-aw kanimo,
Way pagduda nga ang uniberso nibuklad sama sa naandan.

Mao nga hinumdomi ang Ginoo
Bisan unsa man ang imong paghulagway kaniya,

Ug bisan unsa man ang imong gihimo ug gidamgo
Taliwa sa saba nga kalibog sa kinabuhi, atimana ang imong kalag.

Bisan sa mga pagpakaaron-ingnon, kalisdanan ug pakyas nga damgo
Ang kalibutan nagpabiling matahom.

Mag-amping.
Paninguha nga magmalipayon.

–Gihubad sa Binisaya, Septyembre 16, 2009

Sen. Manny Villar, former president Joseph Estrada and the rest of the early birds in the 2010 presidential race must have felt the slap land on their faces. They have spent millions, even billions, of pesos in the past few years shamelessly advertising their candidacies through infomercials and yet they ended up being pummeled by an upstart.

Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III only started seriously thinking about running for president about a month ago but the result of a recent Social Weather Station Survey in Luzon had him on top of the other wannabes. Noynoy got the nod of a whooping fifty percent of more than a thousand respondents. Villar at second managed only 14 percent.

It would be interesting to find out the reaction to this development of people obsessed with putting Noynoy down. The past days, scurrilous attacks on Aquino have surfaced, like those insinuating he is gay and chiding his hairstyle to those making wrong claims about his record as legislator. As Manny Pacquiao would say, “Now you know.”

Reminds me of a phrase used to describe former world heavyweight boxing champion Evander Holyfield. The survey result proved Noynoy is the “real deal.” His percentage rating may dip if the other provinces in Luzon and the Visayas and Mindanao are included in the survey. Still, it would be difficult to dislodge Noynoy from his perch.

Villar, Erap and even Malacañang spokespersons are valiantly trying to downplay the survey results, saying the presidential elections are still months away. The hope is that once Noynoy is exposed to the muckraking that characterizes our electoral process, his popularity would plunge enough for those with better political machinery to prevail.

But that will happen only if Noynoy is not the “real deal” and his reformist army of supporters falters, like what happened to actor Fernando Poe Jr. in the 2004 elections and Miriam Defensor-Santiago in the 1992 elections. Both lost against administration candidates, Poe to Gloria Macapagal Arroyo and Santiago to Fidel V. Ramos.

If Noynoy is the “real deal,” he can’t be “unmasked.” No amount of character assassination, like what the anti-Noynoys have been doing the past weeks, can put a dent on his charisma and character. On the contrary, his leading position would be enhanced if his handlers start pouncing on his advantages. The Noynoy campaign has barely started.

While Noynoy’s critics have wisely downplayed his unsullied record as public servant, they wrongly focused on his supposed failure to get out of the shadows of his parents (“Magpakalalaki ka,” they said) and his alleged lackluster record as a legislator. But Noynoy is no FPJ. He is an economics graduate and his ability is no laughing matter.

When the real Noynoy comes out, I am sure even his worst critics would be surprised. And what if his handlers start airing political ads extolling Noynoy’s virtues? Even now, his critics have largely been ineffective, their lies exposed and their pettiness surfacing. Once he starts campaigning, his status as frontrunner would be cemented.

Also, this is a battle between Good and Evil, between reformist and trapo politics. The army of reform is just being formed and yet many volunteers have already been attracted to it. If Team Noynoy can set up a decent organizational structure for those recruited into this army nationwide, then protecting the votes wouldn’t be that difficult

(This came out in my September 16, 2009 Candid Thoughts column in Sun.Star Cebu)

Trust analysts to come up with fancy terms to describe a situation and make these stick. Take “paradigm shift” or “tipping point.” For the most recent—Sen. Mar Roxas giving up his presidential ambition and pushing Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III to run for the post instead—there’s “game changer.” My gut feel is that the term will stay.

I like “game changer” because it conjures the difference between the traditional and the reformist conduct of electoral campaigns. For some analysts, a Noynoy candidacy for president would hopefully change the rules of the game that presidentiables follow. Sen. Francis Pangilinan calls it an “electoral revolt” against traditional or trapo politics.

Old rules peg presidential candidacies on money, organization, survey, etc. All declared presidentiables, from Sen. Manny Villar to Jamby Madrigal, measure the ability to win on these factors. In a press conference Noynoy called Wednesday, this question was eventually asked: does he have money and organization to mount a campaign?

But the campaign won’t be done in the traditional way. That’s why Pangilinan talked about forming a “people’s army” that would wage the battle for electoral reform. If they kowtow to the trapo game plan, the election would be lost, Noynoy admitted. Thus, his candidacy will rely more than ever on what some call the “People Power framework.”

Now is the right time to summon that “people’s army” once more and only Noynoy and nobody else as of the moment can inspire them to heed the call. Not Villar, not Joseph Estrada, not Loren Legarda, not even Francis Escudero. Proof of that is the response to Roxas’ announcement supporting Noynoy’s bid: the excitement is palpable.

In this situation, political acumen is of secondary importance. Indeed, the rap against Noynoy is his lackluster record as politician. “Noynoy has to establish his own identity. He has to set up his own record,” was Malacañang’s response. Noynoy is neither Cory nor Ninoy, his parents. He lacks the charisma and capability of both, others say.

But that misses the point. Noynoy should not be compared to his parents but to the other presidentiables. He should be viewed not in the context of the “ideal president” but on kind of leader Filipinos need after the Estrada and Gloria Arroyo presidencies. When one considers non-trapo leadership, all other presidentiables pale in comparison.

Will the other presidentiables rally around him as a common opposition bet? I doubt, considering the character of these trapos. They won’t do a Roxas, but their selfish ways would be exposed. Does that take away Noynoy’s chances of winning the election? Not with the “Cory magic” and not if he is able to ride on the crest of the yellow wave.

What a Noynoy candidacy for president provides for many of those who are disillusioned with the country’s governance and politics is the belief that change can still be had despite the seemingly bleak situation. It also gives them something to fight for in an election that before this offered nothing but a political leadership bankrupt of values.

If a Noynoy candidacy can push the indifferent to fight the good fight again, that is achievement enough. And it seems to be on the verge of happening, dependent only on Aquino’s decision after he goes on a spiritual retreat this week. So trapos, beware!

(I wrote this for my September 4, 2009 “Candid Thoughts” column in Sun.Star Cebu)

I CAN sense the excitement in Janrax’s eyes every time he talks to me about how he wants Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III to run for president in the 2010 polls. And he means “president,” not vice-president even to Liberal Party mate Sen. Mar Roxas, who has spent millions of pesos on infomercials announcing his presidential bid.

Janrax even designed a logo “Noy.P” with a yellow background. That’s short for “Noynoy for President” and a play on the word “Pinoy” (Filipino). He showed it to me several days before Inquirer columnist Conrado de Quiros coined the straightforward “Noypi” for “Noynoy for President Initiative.” It was like fate is working double time.

I admit I consider myself old for this stuff. Since I was forcibly “retired” from activism after my second arrest in 1988, I had distanced myself from “isms” and other “movements” and concentrated on two things: work and family. Thus when I saw the peculiar “twinkle” in Janrax’s eyes it was like déjà vu. I had that when I was younger.

That only means “Noy.P” or “Noypi” is once more rekindling what decades of government-misrule and trapo politicking had erased from within the now indifferent former Edsa yellow horde. It has given a new sense of purpose to them and to a fresh generation of patriots who are now apparently willing to fight the good fight again.

But why Noynoy? His Senate stint is lackluster. In a way, that question eerily conjures a similar one asked days after the then dictator Ferdinand Marcos announced the holding of a snap election in February 1986. Why Cory? Why entrust this country to a housewife, a TWA (talagang walang alam)? Ahh, fate: Cory was Noynoy’s mother.

But you cannot dictate where the tide of history flows. Manny Villar, Mar Roxas, Loren Legarda, Joseph Estrada—and the list goes on—they all prepared themselves for the presidency years before straddling Malacañang may have crossed Noynoy’s mind. But who could have foretold Cory’s death and the recollection of our heroism of old?

The tail-end of the presidency of Fidel Ramos, three years of Erap plus nine years of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo represented the downslide of governance and has created a groundswell against government corruption and trapo ways. A Moral Force Movement has become appealing because of the lack of morality in our politics.

What the country needs, therefore, is a rallying figure for moral renewal and reform in time for next year’s polls. It is not surprising then that when the Noynoy Aquino for President Movement was launched this month, it had picked up momentum. Leaders of the yellow horde are coming out again, reinvigorated and determined.

Of course, we do not know if the groundswell would be enough to negate the usual maneuvering from the top. Noynoy is undecided and the trapos are urging him to run for vice president instead, where as a spare tire his presence won’t make a dent in current political realities. If Noynoy gives in, Noypi’s sense of purpose would be crushed.

The ball, then, is now on Noynoy’s court. Will he accept the challenge like his mother, who had a gut feel for what is good for the country, or will he frustrate those who believe he is really his parents’ true offspring? In this context, making that decision itself is the true test of the stuff the son of Ninoy and Cory is made of.

(I wrote this for my September 2, 2009 “Candid Thoughts” column for Sun.Star Cebu)